Coronavirus: How Deadly the Threat?

Quemado Institute
March 1, 2020
Last edit March 4, 2020

Will COVID-19 Change Our Way of Life?
By Karl Pomeroy

Coronavirus, officially named COVID-19, appears to be some 56 times deadlier than the flu, according to the latest reported statistics of February 29, 2020. One source claims 16,000 people have died of the flu out of 29 million cases in the US this season. That’s a death rate of 0.06%.

In contrast, according to worldwide data today, there have been 2,900 deaths from COVID-19 out of 86,000 cases, presenting a death rate of 3.4%. That’s 56 times higher than that of the flu.

This is a cautious estimate. The COVID-19 death-rate above was calculated as deaths per the number of cases. Most of these cases have not yet run their course. So the actual death-rate may be much higher.

Somewhat more accurately, the death-rate might be calculated as deaths per the number of resolved cases, or deaths per the number of deaths+recoveries. According to Wikipedia’s latest figures as of February 28, 2020, at least 2,900 coronavirus deaths have occurred, while more than 39,000 people have recovered. This method of calculation indicates a death-rate of 6.9%.

The true coronavirus death-rate would be somewhere between these figures, or about 5%, accounting for the fact that recoveries take longer, so all have not yet been recorded.

Click to enlarge. COVID-19 statistics, February 29, 2020 (–Wikipedia)

There is a lot of uncertainty in these numbers. The vast majority of cases are in China, and the Chinese government may be publishing false or misleading information.1

Death-rate statistics also vary widely from country to country (click chart at left), for reasons as yet unexplained. Is the variation due to how countries count cases? Is it a function of how many people are tested? Does it result from inaccurate data, or deliberate falsification?

Or is there a true variation, reflecting the health status of the residents, the quality of medical care and sanitation, the diet or lifestyle, or even the genetic makeup of the population? Not only are the answers not known, the questions are not even asked.

Why not?

Below are listed the death-rates per country, as of February 28, 2020, ordered by the number of cases. The Diamond Princess cruise ship is also included, based on Wikipedia data as of March 1, 2020.

Country . . . Deaths/cases . . . Deaths/deaths+recoveries

China  .  .  .   .   .   .  .  3.6 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   6.7 %
South Korea  .  .   .  .  0.5 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 37.8 %
Italy  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   .  .  2.4 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 31.3 %
Iran   .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  7.3 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  25.9 %
Diamond Princess   .0.9 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    6.0 %
Japan  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  2.1 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 10.6 %
Singapore  .  .  .  .  .  . 0.0 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   0.0 %
Hong Kong  .  .  .   .  .  2.1 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .   5.7 %
France  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 3.5 %  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 14.3 %

It doesn’t add up.

Few things add up about what we are being told. When things don’t add up, we suspect we are being lied to. This is how conspiracy theories are born. All we can ask is, who benefits? Then build theories of our own. Some unanswered questions:

  • Why has the CDC allowed just over 400 people in the US to be tested for COVID-19 until now? Other countries have tested thousands of people.
  • Why is President Trump hinting that coronavirus is no worse than the flu? Is he following orders from his would-be assassins? Are his enemies setting a trap to impeach him? Are they willing to risk American lives to destroy his presidency?
  • How do you explain the coincidence that 25 Iranian government officials have tested positive3, with one death among them already, so soon after President Trump ordered the killing of Soleimani? Did an undercover agent plant the virus in Iran?
  • Why is the death rate in Iran the world’s highest? Is there truth to the rumor that Iran harbors a different strain?4
  • What about the biowarfare lab in Wuhan? Was coronavirus engineered by the NWO to reduce the world’s population?

If politicians and the media told us the truth, we wouldn’t have to concoct such wild “conspiracy” theories.

Will COVID-19 impact our lives?

What is it like to live day to day with infectious disease in our midst? Most of us now have no memory of such hardship. But consider the history of smallpox:

During the 20th century, it is estimated that smallpox was responsible for 300–500 million deaths. In the early 1950s an estimated 50 million cases of smallpox occurred in the world each year. As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization estimated that 15 million people contracted the disease and that two million died in that year. After successful vaccination campaigns throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, the WHO certified the global eradication of smallpox in December 1979. Wikipedia:

Yet despite that horrific death toll, the world was able to carry on.

In those days, of course, the world economy was largely locally based. In today’s globalist world, our middle-class lifestyle is far more fragile. The immediate impact of a coronavirus pandemic would be sweeping supply shortages, especially of items made in China and products that depend on them. Unfortunately these comprise the lion’s share of consumer and industrial goods.

The result could be a temporary wave of material deprivation and poverty, with people struggling to survive as they did during the Great Depression.  Recovery might take several years to a decade or even longer.

Yet recovery, once it happened, would no doubt bring great blessings. Optimistically, manufacturing would revert to the national and local level. Retail stores would revive, offering local goods and hand-made crafts. National cultures and traditions would thrive, while industrial exploitation by transnational corporations would cease to ravage the earth.

Is a pandemic likely?

In my opinion the realistic answer is yes. US President Donald Trump had optimistically suggested that summer might stop the spread of the virus. Unfortunately, a coronavirus death has now been reported among the 29 cases in Australia2, where summer is in full swing, casting doubt on that hope. Moreover, coronavirus epidemics might recur each winter. Worse still, a few patients that have recovered later suffered a relapse.

It is also clear that the spread is exponential and possibly out of control. This means nearly all of us will be exposed eventually. But most of us will survive. And those that survive will be the strongest.

Does exposure mean we contract the disease? Little information is available. Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, assuming all on board were exposed to some degree through the ventilation system, 705 passengers out of 3,500 contracted the virus, corresponding to an infection rate of about 20%.

How can we prepare?

My recommendations are to stock up on basic storable foods like rolled oats, powdered milk, nuts, split peas, barley flakes, and soybean flour. Fortify your immune system with 3000-4000 mg vitamin C, 400-800 IU of Vitamin D, 200-400 IU Vitamin E, 10000 units Beta Carotene, as well as recommended dosages of Calcium and Magnesium citrate, Zinc picolinate, Copper and other trace minerals.

Keep herbal remedies on hand, such as

  • Goldenseal root – a natural anti-viral
  • Olive Leaf – helps fight infection
  • Oregano Oil gels – helps reduce infection
  • Cardamom – an Indian spice and traditional remedy for repiratory illness
  • Quercetin – a citrus bioflavanoid and powerful anti-oxidant
  • Bromelain – pineapple extract that works with Quercetin

About public services, a complete breakdown of infrastructure will probably never happen, even in the worst pandemic and resultant economic collapse. But intermittent power outages would likely be more frequent. Store an emergency water supply. Set up a propane camp stove, wood stove, fireplace or barbeque pit for cooking. Keep candles, matches and flashlights ready.

It is also advisable to stay home as much as possible. Avoid large gatherings. Do not travel.

All of the above are only my personal recommendations. Please seek professional advice or refer to official sources before making your choices.

Be a survivor and contribute to a better world.


Update (22;00 UTC March 2): Washington State, USA, now has reported 8 coronavirus deaths.


1  An example is cited by Al Jazeera: “A report from Caixin on the way China counts coronavirus infections has analysed data from the province of Heilongjiang in the northeast. Since the beginning of last month [February], the National Health Commission has required that local authorities include ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ in the coronavirus data but it seems not all are doing so. Caixin says there were 104 asymptomatic cases in Heilongjiang on February 25 but they were not included in its 408 ‘confirmed cases’.” Quemado Institute comments: China has been reporting a decrease in new daily cases for some days now, raising hopes of containment. But are these reports accurate?

2  According to Al Jazeera: “Officials in Australia said a woman and a male doctor have contracted coronavirus, becoming the country’s first cases of community transmissions in the country. New South Wales state’s Minister for Health Brad Hazzard said a 31-year old doctor has tested positive for coronavirus, though it is not clear whom he contracted the virus from. State officials said a 41-year-old woman was tested after her brother returned to Australia from Iran, a country that has emerged as a coronavirus hotspot in the Middle East.”

3  Al Jazeera reports on March 4, 2020: “Iran marks the highest number of government officials sickened in the contagion, including the vice president, the deputy heath minister and 23 members of parliament.”

4. In the same report: “Scientists in China studying the coronavirus say they have found that two main strains of the virus are circulating in humans and causing infections. … The preliminary study found that a more aggressive strain of the new coronavirus associated with the outbreak in Wuhan accounted for about 70% of analysed cases, while 30% were linked to a less aggressive type.” No link to Iran was mentioned however, as research has just begun.



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