Novorossiya, Peace Talks, Ukraine Civil War

Weapons Withdrawal A Win for Donbass: Guest Commentary

Kiev Outmanoeuvred by the Rebels
A Guest Commentary
by Hermius

HERMIUS Today
July 25, 2015

Following on from the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics’ unilateral withdrawal of “smaller” weapons from the front line on July 16th.

A week later and the LPR and DPR s initiative, on the evidence, seems to have paid off. Kiev could have taken advantage of the withdrawal by moving forces forward – they had an advantage over the rebels along the contact line and could have taken ground.

Nevertheless, immediately following the move on July 16th, and for several days after, the initiative received scant publicity in the western media. A core part of the initiative was to force Kiev into a corner. After all, if they had attacked, following such a withdrawal, it would have been a clear violation of the Minsk 2 agreement. It would have been risky therefore. I’m assuming here, of course, that Kiev does not want peace in the Donbass and Minsk is the one thing stopping them launching another offensive.

The tactic since Minsk, in February, has been to provoke the rebels into an offensive which they can thereby claim would have been a viable reason to relaunch the war – and keep western backers on board to boot. Having failed for five months, it must have come as a shock to them when Donetsk and Lugansk unilaterally announced a further withdrawal – regardless of Kiev. This appears to have been the reason for the heavy shelling of central Donetsk on the night of July 18th. A final salvo of artillery shells in one last attempt to draw the rebels out into a full blown scrap. It failed. On Monday July 20th Kiev conceded to a withdrawal of similar weaponry from the contact – claiming it was their initiative in the first place.

Consequently, the engagement lines have gone quiet, and a relative peace has descended over Donetsk and Lugansk cities. As a consequence this benefits the republics’ leaders in four ways:

1. They have shown, in particular to a world audience, their intention towards peace

2. They have succeeded in forcing more of Kiev’s heavy weapons back from the contact line, ensuring fewer of those weapons are capable of reaching populated areas

3. Because of 1 & 2 they have stymied a small but growing discontent amongst their populations (which Kiev was hoping would lead to open revolt in the republics before long)

4. They have shown their control over the militias along the front line – demonstrating further evidence that their armed forces command structure is now fully developed

It is my opinion, that these factors being displayed – full control of military, continued strong support amongst the populations of the republics and the public furtherance of Minsk 2 – will play a significant role in the future of this conflict than most would believe at present. Kiev has been weakened without a shot being fired so-to-speak whilst the Republics remain impressively strong, confident and united.

It would appear for the first time, that we now have a balanced situation in the conflict – both militarily and politically. Consequently, this is now a new situation because Kiev’s available options are fewer. If they say they adhere to Minsk, then the next step is to propose the constitutional changes in the agreement. And this is the tough bit. Real concessions, to the republics, must be made by Kiev at this point.

This new position is like traversing a dangerous mountain ridge for the Kiev leadership – an abyss on either side and uncertainty straight ahead. They either scrap Minsk, risking the anger of Europe, concede to the republics, risking the anger of militant factions in Ukraine, or, continue to trudge the rocky path, effectively freezing the conflict for the foreseeable future.

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

News from Novorossiya

Friday December 1, 2017 - Breaking News from DONETSK and LUGANSK Today

News from Novorossiya

APU Has Begun Preparations for Seizure of Two Villages in Mariupol Direction - Eduard Basurin - DNR News - November 30, 3017

News from Novorossiya

Ukrainian troops violate ceasefire, get stuck in new "cauldron" - Fort Russ - November 29, 2017 - The Ukrainian Armed Forces, having violated in the Minsk Agreements and seized the villages of Gladosovo and Metallist . . . Click image for more>>

News from Novorossiya

Kiev launches over 1,200 shells on DPR territory in 24 hours - JCCC - DONi News - November 26, 2017 - The Ukrainian army launched more than 1,200 shells on the front-line localities of the Donetsk People’s Republic over the past 24 hours . . . Click image for more>>

News from Novorossiya

PLOTNITSKY RESIGNS, Leonid Pacechnik Becomes Acting LPR Head - Lugansk Information Center - November 24, 2017

News from Novorossiya

LUGANSK ATTEMPTED COUP: Unexpected development of Lugansk political crisis: 3rd day report - DONi News - November 23, 2017

Quemado Institute Home Page

New Lugansk Leadership Offers Hope For Donbass Unity - Eduard Popov - Introduction - LPR Presidential Transition: The Dark Side and the Light Side - By Kennedy Applebaum - Lugansk after the Coup: Towards a Unified Donbass People's Republic? - By Eduard Popov - Fort Russ - November 26, 2017

News from Novorossiya

Is This a Coup to Overthrow Plotnitsky - Quemado Institute - November 22, 2017 - Rumors are the Igor Plotnitsky is now being replaced.

Quemado Institute Syria Page

Famous White Helmets' FB-accounts Exposed: Look Into Their Eyes Again (Photos) - By Sophie Mangal - November 25, 2017

________________________
Best Website Award 2017

Conservative Treehouse

If you like Donald Trump, deplore foreign wars, respect Vladimir Putin, and hate neocon libtards, Conservative Treehouse is the site for you.

For cheerful alternate news! :)
________________________

Quemado Institute – World

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: Official Story of Las Vegas Shooting Unravels; Physical impossibility of lone gunman senior citizen makes narrative ludicrous - By Mike Adams - Natural News - Posted October 3, 2017

Quemado Institute – Syria

ISIS Emirs decided to get away from the horrible slaughter near Der-ez-Zorr in Istanbul? - Written by Sophie Mangal for Quemado Institute - September 27, 2017 - Posted October 3, 2017

Boycott Google – Use Alternate Search Engines:

DuckDuckGo
Bing
Cuyahoga Libnet
MyWay.com

Support internet freedom.

Quemado institute Syria Page

Russian special forces repel US-planned attack in Syria, denounce USA and issue a stark warning By The Saker - September 21, 2017

Quemado Institute – World

US Gov’t Pesticide Spraying In Wake Of Harvey - A Toxic Boon To Agrochemical Giants - By Whitney Webb - Mint Press News - Posted September 14, 2017

Quemado institute Syria Page

US Orders South Syria Rebels to Retreat Into Jordan - CIA Requests' Rebel Groups Stop Fighting - By Jason Ditz - AntiWar.com - September 10, 2017

Quemado Institute Opinion Page

GeoEngineeringWatch.org VIDEO - CIA Agent Whistleblower Risks All To Expose the Shadow Government - Posted September 7, 2017

Quemado Institute Editorial

Cataclysm of Planetary Decline: Are Insects Facing Extinction? Apocalyptic Forewarning - By Karl Pomeroy - Quemado Institute - August 30, 2017

Quemado Institute Editorial

Afghanistan Escalation: Full Analysis by Quemado Institute - Donald Trump and the War of the Imperial West - By Karl Pomeroy - August 26, 2017

Quemado Institute Report

Google Censorship Under Scrutiny – By Claire Connelly - With introduction by Quemado Institute - August 19, 2017 - Revised September 4, 2017

Quemado Institute Opinion Page

VIDEO – Are Closed Walmarts Being Converted To FEMA Internment Camps? - These journalists raise troublesome questions we can’t answer - Posted. September 6, 2017

Novorossiya Daily Sun -Official Website Link-

Official Link To Quemado Institute's Dedicated Donbass News Site

Quemado Journal of Gravitational Physics Official Website Link

Investigations in nonstandard theories of gravity and cosmology.

Follow Quemado Institute on WordPress.com

Archives

Categories

Recent Posts

Censorship Looms Over European Union

Quemado Institute editor Karl Pomeroy received a legal threat today in response to a comment he posted on the Russia Insider website about the rise of the R********d banking family. The comment did not mention race, but was of historical content. The threatener accused Karl of “spreading Nazi propaganda,” then repeated the full text of the German Criminal Code Section 130, which outlaws inciting “hatred against a national, racial, religious group or a group defined by their ethnic origins,” which Karl’s comment did not do. A similar law, it was claimed, is now in force in 11 other European countries and carries a penalty of up to five years. The wording of the law is so vague, it could be applied to any criticism of those in power. If a political analyst can accidentally “violate” this totalitarian decree, there is no freedom of speech or press in Europe.

%d bloggers like this: