Repost of July 17, 2015 article
Updated July 29, 2015
Updated October 18, 2015
An idea has been proposed for a theory on Kiev’s motive for shooting down Malyasian Flight MH17, the Boeing 777 airliner that crashed in east Ukraine on July 17, 2014. If correct, the theory might assist investigators in identifying those who ordered the downing. This is especially important now, when a UN Tribunal is being proposed to prosecute those responsible for the crash. We hope this theory will be brought to the attention of the experts, particularly investigators in Russia, Donbass, and Canada.
Theory on the Motive for the MH17 Shootdown.
Analysts have come up with a logical motive for the downing of Malyasian flight MH17, a crime many believe was ordered by Ukrainian government officials. Though unproven, the following theory about the motive for the crime fits all facts known to us:
First, it was not a coincidence that flight MH17 was shot down precisely at the bottleneck in the territory held by the Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF). This bottleneck, formed by the downward notch of the Debaltsevo pocket to the north and an upward bend of the Russian border to the south (see map at right), also happened to coincide with the boundary between the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (shown on map below). Cutting NAF territory in half at that point would isolate the two Republics, thus crippling the coordinated efforts of the DPR and LPR militias. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) were at that time already trying to isolate the two Republics by amassing UAF troops in the Debaltsevo pocket.
The fighting was intense, but attempts up to that time were unsuccessful. The UAF needed a further advantage. Recall that a few minutes before the crash, the Malaysian Boeing, while being escorted by at least one Ukrainian SU25 fighter jet, was directed by Kiev from its normal southern flight path to a course aimed for the location of the shootdown. [QI editor: This may be incorrect. See October 18, 2015 update at end of post.] It thus appears that the crash site was deliberately chosen.
Why choose the site at that particular spot?
As a strategic military ploy, according to the theory, the perpetrators of the crime were seeking that advantage that would enable the UAF to isolate the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics, The perpetrators must have known that a major passenger airline crash at the narrow neck along DPR/LPR boundary would draw into the area a number of foreign investigators and security forces, whose presence would disrupt the defenses of the militias.
The ploy nearly worked. During the chaotic days of investigation and recovery that followed the airline tragedy, the Ukrainian Armed Forces almost succeeded in cutting the last highway connecting the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk. That important highway passed not far from the crash site. Ultimately, the NAF managed to hold their ground, but not without difficulty.
If the idea that a crime of this magnitude could be committed for cold-blooded strategic reasons is hard to accept, bear in mind that the UAF, under orders from Poroshenko, has killed thousands of civilians by the deliberate shelling of residential neighborhoods. That such a motive seems unthinkable does not mean the theory should be discarded. We believe it should be evaluated thoroughly on the basis of all evidence.
Many things are unthinkable about the Ukrainian war on Donbass. Nevertheless, we must be brave enough to look at events clearly.
Some have suggested that Ukrainian officials may not have been smart enough to come up with such a diabolical plot. However, the tweets of Carlos @Spainbuca, who was present in the KIev air control tower at the moment of the downing, mentioned “foreigners” in the control tower taking command and gathering information [link provided below]. This implied possible CIA or foreign intelligence involvement.
Note that Carlos’ Twitter feed could not have been a hoax. His tweets were time-stamped while the event was in progress. To know the plane was being shot down, he had to have been at the place where the event was being coordinated.
Quemado Insitute confirmed on July 18, 2014 that @Spainbuca’s tweets were in genuine Twitter format. His account had been deleted from Twitter, but his tweets were still available in Google cache. Our Word document record of @Spainbuca’s Twitter Feed, saved on July 18, 2014 and reposted today on our backup website, is available at
October 28, 2015 Update
The official Dutch Safety Board MH17 investigation report, released on the October 13, 2015, claims the Malaysian Boeing 777 was not directed north to a new flight path, but maintained its prescheduled route. There are numerous flaws, however, in the Dutch investigation (see our commentary Quemado Institute Rebuttal: MH17 Dutch Investigation Weak, Inconclusive), and we have no independent verification of their statement. If reports of redirection were rumors, that would of course negate one item of circumstantial evidence for the theory described above. But the theory as a whole would not be less plausible. It would only mean the Ukrainians knew ahead of time the Boeing would pass over the desired target zone.
Note that the Kiev control tower did indeed redirect Flight MH17, but only to a higher altitude. This, plus the fact that most previous flights had taken a more southerly route, may have triggered possible rumors.
‘MH17 crash used by US to break Russia’s relationship with Europe’ RT interview with Paul Craig Roberts
RT Op-Edge / July 17-27, 2015 / The crash of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 has been used to enforce sanctions against Russia and is fundamental to Washington’s efforts to break the Russia-Europe relationship, Paul Craig Roberts, former assistant secretary of the US Treasury, tells RT. RT: It’s been a year since the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine, which claimed the lives of all 298 people onboard. Eastern Ukraine was a war zone at the time – yet the Ukrainian authorities haven’t closed the airspace, allowing civil flights over the area. What was behind their inaction? Paul Craig Roberts: I think they intended for the airliner to be shot down. The latest evidence is that it was shot down by air, by a Ukrainian jet fighter using a missile. This is the best evidence we have at this time. What is suspicious about this is that the instant that the airliner was reported to have been shot down, the entirety of the Western media was already programmed to blame Russia. Before there was any evidence, before there was any explanation, we had all of the Western media blaming Russia – even the BBC, which used to be a respectable news organization. So this suggests the whole thing was preplanned. And if you look at the development of this we see that Ukraine has not released any information about its contacts with the airliner. And we see that Washington, which had a spy satellite directly over the area at the time, refuses to release its information. So the only information we have comes from the Russians, and the Russians say that if this had happened on a ground-to-air missile, this Buk system, that their radar in Rostov would have picked it up and yet it shows no such happening. . . . MORE>>
Russia will veto creation of a tribunal into downing of Boeing in Donbass / Vestnik Kavkaza / July 27, 2015 / Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, said today that Russian will use its right of veto during the voting on a resolution of the UN Security Council to create a Tribunal into the downing of the Malaysian Boeing in Ukraine, if the rest of the Security Council votes affirmatively. “We will vote against it. I have no doubts. If the resolution receives nine or more votes, there will be a veto,” Tass cites him as saying.