Upcoming Primaries and Caucuses with Poll Results
(Updated as results appear)
By Kennedy Applebaum
March 3, 2016
Updated April 7, 2016
1,237 delegates, or just over half the total of 2,472, are needed overall to win the Republican race for the 2016 presidential nomination. If no candidate gains a majority, a brokered Republican convention will be held. Donald Trump stands as the party’s frontrunner, having as of April 7 a total of 745 delegates, with Rafael “Ted” Cruz at 501, and John Kasich at 143. Of the approximately 858 delegates left to be determined, Trump would have to win 492, or about 58%, to reach the magic number 1,237.
Total delegates (April 6): Trump 745 Cruz 501 Kasich 143
Wisconsin held its Republican primary on April 5, 2016. Rafael Cruz won the state, dominating the heavily populated metropolitan counties primarily in the southeast and gaining 36 delegates. Donald Trump had a substantial lead in most of Wisconsin’s counties, particularly in the rural north and west, and received 6 delegates.
The upcoming Republican primary (all future events are primaries) schedule, with delegate totals and notes on projected share of vote is:
Republican Primary Schedule
4-19 New York 95 Trump leads Cruz 55/11%; More than 50% wins all
4-26 Connecticut 28 No poll data
4-26 Delaware 16 No poll data
4-26 Maryland 38 No poll data
4-26 Pennsylvania 71 (54 unpledged) Trump leads Kasich 36/33%
4-26 Rhode Island 19 No poll data, but Trump probably leads
5-3 Indiana 57 No poll data, but Trump probably leads
5-10 Nebraska 36 No poll data
5-10 W. Virginia 34 No poll data, but Trump probably leads
5-17 Oregon 28 No poll data
5-24 Washington 44 No poll data
6-7 California 172 Trump leads Cruz 38/27%
6-7 Montana 27 No poll data
6-7 New Jersey 51 No poll data, but Trump probably leads
6-7 New Mexico 24 No poll data
6-7 South Dakota 29 No poll data
Projection: Sources differ on the number of remaining delegates to be assigned, with figures varying from about 850 to 900. The reason may be that Missouri results are still uncertain, or that some of the unpledged delegates have not yet been committed. In any case, the number of delegates left to be assigned in future primaries is 769.
Trump needs another 492 delegates to reach the magic number 1,237, or about 58% of the approximate remaining 850 delegates. Since he has already won 55% of the 1,389 deligates allotted so far to Trump, Cruz and Kasich combined, this is reasonably consistent with his past performance.
By conservative estimates, Trump is likely to receive another 440 delegates from future primaries. These estimates are based on poll data where available. (In states where poll data is not available, the assumption is Trump would receive 50% plus one of the delegates, a slight bias to reflect his lead in national polls. In states where he is expected to win, it is assumed he will receive about 60% of the delegates, reflecting his past performance.)
By this conservative estimate, Trump would end up 52 delegates short. However, he could still win the necessary 492 if he earns an average of 62% in states where poll data is not available, or receives some of the unassigned delegates from earlier primaries.
Results for March, 2016
Donald Trump enjoyed an overwhelming victory on March 15, having gained 204 delegates, or 62% of those assigned as of the afternoon of March 16. Kasich took 80, Cruz 41, and Rubio, who has dropped out of the race, just 6. The results of the March 15 MIssouri primary are still too close to call, with Trump at 40.8% and Cruz at 40.6%. Assuming the delegates are divided equally, this would give each of the two another 26, with Trump having won approximately 61% of delegates for the day.
Trump has won, as of early March 16, a total of 18 states and the North Mariana Islands, close to tripling Cruz’s tally of 7 states, while Rubio has won only one state, along with Washington DC and the territory of Puerto Rico, and Kasich only the state of Ohio.
Election figures for March, 2016:
On March 5, Rafael Cruz took 69 delegates due to a huge win in the Kansas caucus—despite polls showing Trump in the lead—as well as a surprise win in the Maine caucus. Donald Trump gained 53 delegates, having received a majority in Kentucky and Louisiana, while Rubio took 18. Rubio took all 23 delegates in the Puerto Rico primary on March 6.
Results for March 5 155 delegates
Kansas (caucus) 40; Polls: Trump 35%, Cruz 29%, Rubio 17%
. Actual: Cruz 48%, Trump 23%, Rubio 17%
Kentucky (caucus) 45; Polls: Trump 35%, Rubio 22%, Cruz 15%
. Actual: Trump 36%, Cruz 32%, Rubio 16%
Lousiana (primary) 47; Polls: Trump 41%, Cruz 21%, Rubio 15%
. Actual: Trump 41.4%, Cruz 37.8%, Rubio 11%
Maine (caucus) 23 (poll figures unknown)
. Actual: Cruz 46%, Trump 33%, Rubio 8%
Results for March 6 23 delegates
Puerto Rico (primary) 23 (poll figures unknown)
. Actual: Rubio 77%, Trump 14%, Cruz 7%
On March 8, Trump widened his lead with wins in Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii, gaining 71 delegates, while Cruz trailed behind, winning only Idaho and gaining 56 delegates. Kasich earned 17, Rubio none.
Results for March 8 150 delegates
Hawaii (caucus) 19; Polls: Trump 36%, Cruz 20%, Rubio 15%
. Actual: Trump 42.4% Cruz 32.7% Rubio 13%
Idaho (primary) 32; Polls: Trump 30%, Cruz 19%, Rubio 16%
. Actual: Cruz 45%, Trump 28%, Rubio 16%
Michigan (primary) 59; Polls: Trump 42%, Cruz 20%, Rubio 14%
. Actual: Trump 36.5%, Cruz 24.9%, Kasich 24%
Mississippi (primary) 40; Polls: Trump 41%, Cruz 17%, Rubio 16%
. Actual: Trump 47.3%, Cruz 36.3%, Kasich 9%
On March 12, Rubio and Kasich topped Trump and Cruz in the DC caucus by a large margin, handing the two winners 10 and 9 delegates respectively.
Results for March 12 19 delegates
Washington DC (cauc ) 19: Polls: (no data)
. Actual: Rubio 37%, Kasich 35%, Trump 14%, Cruz 12%
On March 15, the biggest night since March 1 Super Tuesday, 367 delegates were up for assignment. Most states allocate delegates somewhat proportionally, but ten allocate them on a “Winner Take All” (WTA) basis. Two of these, Ohio and Florida, held primaries today, with Trump gaining all 99 delegates in a two-to-one win in Rubio’s home state of Florida, while Kasich took 66 from his home state of Ohio. Trump gained a clear lead in Illinois and North Carolina, and won all 9 delegates today in the North Mariana Islands caucus. We are still awaiting results from the Missouri primary.
Results for March 15 367 delgates
Florida (primary) 99; Projected: Trump 41%, Rubio 28%, Cruz 19%; WTA
. Actual: Trump 46%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 17%
Illinois (primary) 69; Projected: Trump 33%, Cruz 29%, Kasich 20%, Rubio 17%
. Actual: Trump 39%, Cruz 30%, Kasich 20%
Missouri (primary) 52; Polls: Trump 32%, Cruz 22%, Rubio 20%
. Actual: Trump 40.8%, Cruz 40.6%, Kasich 10%
North Carolina (prim) 72; Projected: Trump 43%, Cruz 33%, Kasich 13%, Rubio 10%
. Actual: Trump 40%, Cruz 37%, Kasich 13%
Ohio (primary) 66; Projected: Kasich 39%; Trump 33%, Cruz 20% WTA
. Actual: Kasich 47%, Trump 36%, Cruz 13%
N Mariana Is (caucus) 9: Polls: (No data)
. Actual: Trump 73%, Cruz 24%, Kasich 2%, Rubio 1%
March 22 98 delegates
Arizona (primary) 58; Polls: Trump 35%, Rubio 23%, Cruz 14%; WTA
. Actual: Trump took all 58 delegates
Utah (caucus) 40: Polls: No data
. Actual: Cruz took all 40 delegates
The ten winner-take-all contests are: Arizona 58; Delaware 16; Florida 99; Ohio 66; Montana 27; Nebraska 36; New Jersey 51; South Dakota 29; Virgin Islands 9; Northern Mariana Islands 9 delegates.