Donetsk, Novorossiya, Peace Talks

Minsk 2.0 Chess Match: Has Zakharchenko Outplayed Kiev? (Repost)

Special Commentary
by Kennedy Applebaum
February 18, 2015

[Editor’s note: This commentary was originally posted on February 18, 2015. We are reposting it on June 12, 2015 from deleted archives to preserve the record.]

.

Vladimir Putin, Francois Hollande, Angela Merkel, Petro Poroshenko, Minsk, February 2015 (--thebricspost.com)

Vladimir Putin, Francois Hollande, Angela Merkel, Petro Poroshenko, Minsk, February 2015 (–thebricspost.com)

At the time of Minsk Agreement 2.0, the Kiev government seemed to be in a winning position. Its weak pawns and beleaguered knights were suddenly backed by two powerful rooks: Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, the leaders of Germany and France. Or at least, we at Quemado Institute thought so. In our February 11 news commentary entitled Tripartite Agreement Dangerous for Novorossiya, written based on the preliminary Minsk Contact Group document entitled Minutes of the meeting the Tripartite Liaison Group with Representatives of Individual Regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts, we noted three danger points for Donbass Republics:

1.) The laws on ‘special status’ are determined by the Ukraine Parliament, not the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR/LPR).

2.) The rule to ‘disarm all illegal groups’ is dangerously ambiguous, since Ukraine might declare the Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF) illegal, thereby precluding Novorossiya’s self-defence in case of a Kiev ceasefire breach.

3.) Elections are to be held only for ‘local authorities,’ implying an end to the Prime Minister positions in the DPR/LPR.

It seemed the underlying principle here was that the Ukraine government was the final authority on the interpretation and implementation of Minsk 2.0. I will call this the Kiev Doctrine, and I’ll refer to it again below.

We weren’t alone in our grim prognosis. Political scientist and military analyst Brad Cabana, in a commentary posted by Red Pill Times on February 12, the day Minsk 2.0 was signed, saw some of the same dangers we did. Among his five key points were:

“2. The agreement ignores the referendums held by the people of Donetsk and Lugansk. It effectively ignores their democratic wish to be separate from Ukraine…. 4. The provisions for decentralization of powers and ‘special status’ for Donetsk and Lugansk are left meaningless as Ukraine President Poroshenko so blatantly showed by declaring Ukraine will not federalize at a press conference held before he even left the venue of the talks. In other words, a meaningless promise…. 5. Disarming of the military forces of Donetsk and Lugansk, the only real guarantor of security, safety, and defender of the will of the people of Donetsk and Lugansk.”

Igor Plotnitsky, Alexander Zakharchenko, Minsk 2015 (--Huffington Post)

Igor Plotnitsky, Alexander Zakharchenko, Minsk 2015 (–Huffington Post)

On February 12, after the Agreements were approved in Minsk by all official parties, including the Tripartite Contact Group, the Normandy Four, and the DPR/LPR Prime Ministers, it seemed as if the Kiev regime was poised for checkmate in one. At this critical juncture, the DPR/LPR Prime Ministers Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky came out with a shocking statement. It looked every bit like surrender. In their joint interview of February 12, Zakharchenko essentially said:

“We have signed an agreement today which I hope will bring the hostilities to an end…. I hope that with this … we’ll see a totally different Ukraine in the future. But it’s impossible not to trust and respect the opinion of the three most significant of today’s presidents, the Russian, German and French leaders, who will guarantee that Ukraine is going to change under the pressure of Donbass. We can’t deprive Ukraine of this chance, because the country itself is going to change. I guess it’s a serious victory for the DPR and LPR. We used to be one with the people of Ukraine, and we will be one with them again.”

I was dumbfounded. That the DPR/LPR would be “one with Ukraine again” struck me as repudiating the DPR’s official Declaration of Independence, approved by the People’s Council. It seemed as if Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky had given their countries away, and rendered obsolete their prime ministerial positions. It looked like total defeat.

It looked like defeat because I was making a hidden assumption. I was assuming the Kiev Doctrine was basically irrefutable, ie.  I was assuming that the Ukraine government was the final authority on the interpretation and implementation of the Minsk agreement. In this erroneous vein, I wrote my infamous commentary of February 13 entitled Minsk 2.0: My Patience Has Ended, in which I deigned to call Novorossiya’s great leaders “betrayers”.

Alexander Zakharchenko, Debaltsevo, February 2015

Alexander Zakharchenko, Debaltsevo, February 2015

But the Kiev Doctrine wasn’t irrefutable. In fact, Zakharchenko annihilated it in a sudden brilliant move. On Saturday, February 14, he said in a Euromaidan Press interview: “The processes happening here actually have nothing to do with Ukraine. The way Ukraine sees them does not matter at all.” In other words, the “fundamentally irrefutable” Kiev Doctrine was brushed away in a single stroke. It was only a weak pawn, blocking the file of a hidden DPR/LPR rook.

Then the rook came into play. In that same interview, Zakharchenko revealed his next move: “We regard the Minsk agreement a victory, paradoxically, in that we will be able to change Ukraine itself. Ukraine’s constitution and political processes are controlled by us. The Minsk agreement is vague and open to interpretation…. We will regard any attempts of Ukraine troops to break out of the [Debaltsevo] pocket or deblockade it as a violation of the Minsk ceasefire…. We will follow our own election law, already adopted by the People’s Council. Local elections will be governed by this law…. This allowed us to understand the Minsk agreement in this way. We understand it as de facto independence…. This is the way we signed it and the way we understand it…. Minsk allows for providing us with special powers. If our demands of de facto independence are not met, we will keep insisting the territory held by the Ukrainian army is illegally occupied and the borders of the Donetsk People’s Republic are the borders of the Donetsk Oblast.”

By proclaiming de facto independence, Zakharchenko was in essence reinstating the DPR’s Declaration of Independence. This was an example of the chess combination called discovered attack, and on the newly opened file, the rook was poised to trap the enemy queen.

Zakharchenko then moved a bishop to the enemy queen’s diagonal: In a February 16 Life News article, he was quoted as saying, “Debaltsevo and other villages are only temporarily occupied [by the UAF]…. Everything happens for the Minsk Agreement, we stand for their positions. Debaltsevo, this is our rear. And in the Minsk Agreement all illegal armed formations on the territory of Donbass should be disbanded or disarmed, so we [carry out] the disarmament of illegal armed groups.” The DPR/LPR “bishop” I mentioned above, then, is the idea that the Ukrainian forces in the Debaltsevo cauldron are an illegal armed group, positioned to the rear in the DPR/LPR territory.

With bishop and rook in place, flanked by the “queen” of the NAF commanders, their fighting knights, and pawns of the weaponry of the DPR/LPR militias, the enemy queen was poised to be taken. And she was taken on February 17, with the fall of Debaltsevo and the surrender of the trapped Ukrainian army.

Today, the Kiev king appears exposed for a mate in two. We eagerly await the endgame.

Quemado Institute praises the bravery, brilliance and hard work of Zakharchenko, Plotnitsky, their government officials, the NAF commanders and the regular militia forces, who are paving the way for Donbass freedom and self-rule, a status deserved by all peoples of the world, and a principle that lies at the very heart of American political philosophy, despite that it has been forgotten by some of our officials in power.

*

Editor’s update, June 12, 2015: DPR Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko has not deviated from the strategy stated above. The Ukraine Constitutional amendments proposed by the DPR/LPR on June 8, 2015, essentially claim de facto independence as promised. Indeed, the Minsk agreements are ambiguous and open to interpretation, and Zakharchenko has interpreted them exactly the way he said he would.

 

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

News from Novorossiya

Wednesday September 5, 2018 - Breaking News from DONETSK and LUGANSK Today

News from Novorossiya

"There is every reason to believe Kiev regime behind Zakharchenko’s murder." -- Maria Zakharova on the assassination of Alexander Zakharchenko - TASS - August 31, 2018

Quemado Institute World

We Told You That Once The Establishment Silenced Assange, The Rest Of The Media Would Be Next: We Were Right - By Elizabeth Vos - Disobedient Media - August 17, 2018

Quemado Institute Opinion

Opinion: The Eulogy Of An Immortal Russiagate Scandal - By Elizabeth Vos - Disobedient Media - August 17, 2018

Quemado Institute Report

Quagmire Gets Deeper as Globalists Push for War – Finian Cunningham, James George Jatras, Brian Cloughley - Strategic Culture Foundation - August 13, 2018

Quemado Institute Opinion

Freedom of speech in the United States was finally strangled. Who is next? -By Andrey Afanasyev - Katehon.com - August 17, 2018

Quemado Institute World

Julian Assange in Immense Danger - James Cogan - May 14, 2018 - Ecuador Hints It May Hand Over Assange

Quemado Institute Culture Page

Puccini's Most Beautiful Aria - Adriana Martino sings "Quando men vo", Scala, 1965 - From the 1965 movie production of the opera La Boheme, directed by renowned Italian film-maker Franco Zefirelli, under the musical direction of Herbert Von Karajan.

Day of Sorrow August 31 2018

Donetsk People’s Republic Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko, one of the greatest of world leaders, was assassinated today, August 31, 2018, no doubt by Ukrainian saboteurs. He gave his life willingly for the freedom of his country. Let us know he has not died in vain.

For those who mourn the death of DPR President Alexander Zakharchenko, there is some consolation to be found in the comment section at The Saker.

Full Report at NEWS FROM NOVOROSSIYA

Quemado Institute Syria Page

Syrian Refugees Return Home: Buy Why Not From Europe? - By Sophie Mangal - August 16, 2018

News from Novorossiya

Ukrainian forces shell DPR with two dozen rounds over past 24 hours – JCCC / Thursday, March 8, 2018

Quemado Institute Syria Page

Situation Worsens in Syrian South: US Defends Terrorists while Israel Strikes Deal with Russia - By Sophie Mangal - June 20, 2018

Quemado Institute World

Does S400 Make F35 Obsolete? Full Analysis by Defense Updates - The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II which is a single-seat, single-engine, all-weather stealth multirole fighters is undergoing final testing by the United States.

Quemado Institute Report

Syria Strike Fails: US, Britain, France Bomb Damascus Friday April 13 2018 - By Kennedy Applebaum - Based on as-it-happened on-site reports by Twitter source AJSB

Quemado institute Syria Page

How British Media Publish Hoaxes on Syria - April 8, 2018 - An article from The Guardian titled “Biggest airstrikes in a year hit Syria after rebels shoot down Russian jet” claims that “Russian and Syrian jets have bombed up to 18 towns across north-west Syria . . . Click image to read more.

Quemado Institute Modern Physics

Quantum Theory of Gravitation - by Vasily Yanchilin - Posted April 12, 2018 - A fascinating new approach to gravity and cosmology, this film is about The Quantum Theory of Gravitation discovered by Russian scientist Vasily Yanchilin.

Quemado Institute Culture Page

Reinhold Messner - World's Greatest Mountaineer - VIDEO Interview set in the Italian Alps

News from Novorossiya

Donbass News - Full Report - December 24, 2017 - SPECIAL CHRISTMAS EDITION

Quemado Institute Syria Page

US supports Kurds in Syria: Turks react - By Mehmet Ersoy - January 27, 2018 - The Operation Olive Branch in northern Syria started five days ago. Five days ago the Afrin region became a possible hotbed of a full-scale . . . CLICK TO READ MORE>>

News from Novorossiya

The Silent War in the Donbas - Frontline Accounts of Volunteers Fighting in the Trenches - VIDEO by Vesti News - December 23, 2017

News from Novorossiya

US takes decision to supply lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine - TASS - December 23, 2017

News from Novorossiya

APU Has Begun Preparations for Seizure of Two Villages in Mariupol Direction - Eduard Basurin - DNR News - November 30, 3017

News from Novorossiya

Kiev launches over 1,200 shells on DPR territory in 24 hours - JCCC - DONi News - November 26, 2017 - The Ukrainian army launched more than 1,200 shells on the front-line localities of the Donetsk People’s Republic over the past 24 hours . . . Click image for more>>

Quemado Institute Editorial

New Lugansk Leadership Offers Hope For Donbass Unity - Eduard Popov - Introduction - LPR Presidential Transition: The Dark Side and the Light Side - By Kennedy Applebaum - Lugansk after the Coup: Towards a Unified Donbass People's Republic? - By Eduard Popov - Fort Russ - November 26, 2017

Quemado Institute Syria Page

Famous White Helmets' FB-accounts Exposed: Look Into Their Eyes Again (Photos) - By Sophie Mangal - November 25, 2017

Quemado Institute-Modern Physics

In Memory of Stephen Hawking: The Works of Stephen Hawking in Physical Review D - Stephen Hawking's 55 journal articles available free online.

Boycott Google – Use Alternate Search Engines:

DuckDuckGo
Bing
Cuyahoga Libnet
MyWay.com

Support internet freedom.

Censorship Alert — the duran

On April 12, 2018, I tried to post two comments at The Duran using the word “Zionist”. Both comments were held for moderation. I reposted them using the spelling “Zyahneest”. The comments were published. Apparently The Duran uses automated software to censor free discussion of Zionism. On April 22 I was again moderated, and my well-meaning comment, on a completely different topic, was deleted. I must be on a blacklist. So who owns The Duran?

Karl Pomeroy, Chief Editor, Quemado Institute

Quemado Institute – Syria

ISIS Emirs decided to get away from the horrible slaughter near Der-ez-Zorr in Istanbul? - Written by Sophie Mangal for Quemado Institute - September 27, 2017 - Posted October 3, 2017

Quemado institute Syria Page

Russian special forces repel US-planned attack in Syria, denounce USA and issue a stark warning By The Saker - September 21, 2017

Quemado Institute – World

US Gov’t Pesticide Spraying In Wake Of Harvey - A Toxic Boon To Agrochemical Giants - By Whitney Webb - Mint Press News - Posted September 14, 2017

Quemado Institute Opinion Page

GeoEngineeringWatch.org VIDEO - CIA Agent Whistleblower Risks All To Expose the Shadow Government - Posted September 7, 2017

Quemado Institute Editorial

Cataclysm of Planetary Decline: Are Insects Facing Extinction? Apocalyptic Forewarning - By Karl Pomeroy - Quemado Institute - August 30, 2017

Quemado Institute Editorial

Afghanistan Escalation: Full Analysis by Quemado Institute - Donald Trump and the War of the Imperial West - By Karl Pomeroy - August 26, 2017

Quemado Institute Report

Google Censorship Under Scrutiny – By Claire Connelly - With introduction by Quemado Institute - August 19, 2017 - Revised September 4, 2017

Quemado Institute Opinion Page

VIDEO – Are Closed Walmarts Being Converted To FEMA Internment Camps? - These journalists raise troublesome questions we can’t answer - Posted. September 6, 2017

Novorossiya Daily Sun -Official Website Link-

Official Link To Quemado Institute's Dedicated Donbass News Site

Quemado Journal of Gravitational Physics Official Website Link

Investigations in nonstandard theories of gravity and cosmology.

Follow Quemado Institute on WordPress.com

Archives

Categories

Recent Posts

Censorship Looms Over European Union

Quemado Institute editor Karl Pomeroy received a legal threat today in response to a comment he posted on the Russia Insider website about the rise of the R********d banking family. The comment did not mention race, but was of historical content. The threatener accused Karl of “spreading Nazi propaganda,” then repeated the full text of the German Criminal Code Section 130, which outlaws inciting “hatred against a national, racial, religious group or a group defined by their ethnic origins,” which Karl’s comment did not do. A similar law, it was claimed, is now in force in 11 other European countries and carries a penalty of up to five years. The wording of the law is so vague, it could be applied to any criticism of those in power. If a political analyst can accidentally “violate” this totalitarian decree, there is no freedom of speech or press in Europe.

%d bloggers like this: